Su Chi: China May Launch “Punitive Strike" to Teach Taiwan a Lesson
United Daily News, September 12, 2020
In face of the United States playing the “Taiwan card,” former Secretary-General of the National Security Council Su Chi said today that the administration of President Tsai Ing-wen is acting as if it has bipolar disorder. From “picking up the gun” in the previous time turns into “picking up the machine gun”. Su warns that during the tense situation among the United States, China, and Taiwan, Taiwan should pay attention to the possibility of a "punitive strike" by the mainland, as a form of warning and punishment.
On September 12, Su attended the "Strategic Dialogue: The Future of Taiwan-U.S.-China" forum organized by the Association for Maritime Affairs and Policy of the Republic of China. He first talked about the setup of the United States, China, and Taiwan. He pointed out that the current U.S.-China-Taiwan setup is at one of its most dangerous times. It has never been in this situation for the past 70 years. The United States, China, and Taiwan are all ruled under hawks, all have strong motives, and all have not had any communication with each other.
Su said that the motive of U.S. President Donald Trump is just to win the re-election and that is why he is aggressively playing the “Taiwan card.” President Tsai thinks that the opportunity that she has been waiting for the "two-state theory" has finally emerged. However, on the other hand, the mainland believes that they finally have the ability and power after 20 years of preparation. And on top of that, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has the pressure to prevail in serving another term. All three sides have strong motive.
Su said that the United States has the desire to help Taiwan, but does not actually have enough power to help. The latest Pentagon military power report admits that U.S. warships, missiles, and air defense are all behind compared to China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The mainland has more than 1,000 missiles they can use against Taiwan, and they are very accurate. The Dongfeng-16 missile can hit any corner of Taiwan within 3 minutes.
Su said that the weight of the United States has decreased, and Taiwan's future depends on "whether the Chinese Communist Party will attack or not," instead of "if the United States will save Taiwan or not." The government knows these things, but Su still does not understand why the Tsai administration is still being so "brave".
Su went on to say that the Tsai administration seems to be suffering from bipolar disorder. In July, all the DPP media editorials were worried and nervous. However, in August and September, with the United States playing the “Taiwan card,” the Tsai administration seemed to pick up the machine guns and make moves in a row. From the U.S. Secretary of Health visiting Taiwan, the sale of drones to Taiwan, the Under-Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment's upcoming visit to Taiwan, the procurement of Harpoon missiles, the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) director’s attendance in the memorial ceremony at Kinmen, the visit of the Czech Senate president to Taiwan, Somaliland, the revision of passport, the opening of the sale of American pigs, to the Dalai Lama looking forward to visit Taiwan next year and so on.
Su said that this phenomenon is not good for Taiwan, and there is no need for Taiwan to intensify Beijing's hostility. The Chinese Communist Party’s style is to have a thorough plan first, and then take action. Like last year’s Hong Kong upheaval, Beijing allowed them to win first and get 80% of the seats in the district council election. But after the Hong Kong version of the National Security Act came out, Beijing “double return.” All the people that should be captured were captured, and the election of Legislative Council is not allowed. This is the style of the Communist Party.
Su thinks that Taiwan must beware of the possibility of a "small attack” from the mainland as their way of teaching Taiwan a lesson. A "big attack" would be military unification, a "small attack" would be trying to teach Taiwan a lesson. They are not going to eat you alive, but will just give you a small slap on the face. The government should care a lot to these “small attacks.” He advises that the Tsai administration not to misread the situation, and believe that because the mainland will not do a “big attack,” Taiwan can do whatever it pleases. Su recommends that the Tsai administration should study and analyze how the mainland will conduct the “small attacks.”